Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
