From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.