Is the Entertainment Fading? The Drop of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

A key narrative of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals more from set-plays instead.

When we compare goal sources to the first 11 games last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.

If we look at the broader view, shot attempts clubs are making reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open play than at this stage last time out.

Even with the notable jump in set-play finishes, there have actually been only two additional shots created from them outside of penalties, indicating how effective clubs are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Show a Story

The 301 goals recorded in 110 games to date calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, if maintained for the whole season could be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

But just 196 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

The 2009-10 season also marks the sole English top-flight season to witness goals scored more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolves have experienced the most significant decline, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with half of the city's seven teams netting a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than the previous year.

In fairness, this is mainly because them netting numerous scores at the start of last season rather than them having difficulty to find the net in open play the current term.

Conversely Manchester City have seen the largest rise, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Comparing clubs that came up with those that were relegated that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 en route to the drop last season.

When it comes to goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the largest rise, with each team making up for the five less goals that they've produced in open-play with identical figures from set-pieces.

Man United have netted two times more scores from set-pieces as they managed in the 11 games last season prior to Ruben Amorim took over, while the Black Cats again are more successful at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about netting additional goals from set-plays, because they've netted a reduction of three than the previous campaign, as have Nottingham Forest, although this may result from the change in style they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open play and additional from set-plays, while City are the unique club to go against the grain up to now by performing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to see if clubs persist to place such emphasis on set-plays as the season goes on or if they regain their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open play too.