Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.